Strategy Tracker

⚡ Buy Window Score — When To Buy

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score

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Calculating signals…

📋 Ideal Buy Conditions — What To Watch For

⬜

Power Law: BTC within 20% of floor (—). Currently — above floor.

⬜

Fear & Greed: Below 25 (Extreme Fear). Currently —/100.

⬜

mNAV: Below 1.5x (fair value or below). Currently —x.

⬜

CEBE mNAV: Between 1.0–1.2x (flywheel on, not overstretched). Currently —. The key signal — above 1x = capital tap open.

⬜

Regime: Not in Deep Bear / Death Cross active. Currently —. This is the caution signal right now.

Reading the signals: CEBE mNAV >1x = flywheel intact = most important green flag. All 5 valuation signals green with ⬜ regime = accumulate in tranches. All 6 green = highest conviction entry. Regime turns green when BTC reclaims the 50d MA (—). Standard mNAV alone is misleading — always check CEBE mNAV first.

▲ BUY — Ranked ($1,000 nominal)

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▼ REDUCE / AVOID — Ranked

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😱 Fear & Greed Index

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30-Day History

MSTR

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MSTY

—

STRC

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₿ Power Law Valuation

⏳Calculating…

BTC Price

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Live

PL Fair Value

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1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77

Deviation

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FloorFair ValueResistance

Floor (0.42×)

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Only breached once (COVID 2020)

Fair Value

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Long-run gravitational centre

Resistance (3×)

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Cycle tops form near here

Formula: 1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77 · Fair value today ≈ —. Sites showing ~$374K use a steeper exponent — this uses Porkopolis regression.

📊 Market Regime — Trend State & Turn Signal

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Turn Signal

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Price vs 200d MA

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Price vs 50d MA ⚡ Early Warning

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——

Golden / Death Cross

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RSI (14-day)

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0305070100

Strategy · MSTR

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mNAV

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Mkt Cap÷BTC NAV

DiscountFairElevated4x

BTC NAV / share

—

Premium / discount to NAV

—

Fair value @ 1.5x mNAV

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Fair value @ 2.0x mNAV

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BTC holdings

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BPS (sats / diluted share)

BTC holdings ÷ assumed diluted × 10⁸

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CEBE (sats / basic share)

Net BTC after senior claims ÷ basic shares

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CEBE (USD / share)

What common shareholders actually own in BTC

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Amplification

BPS ÷ CEBE — leverage from senior claims

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BTC Yield YTD

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What Is CEBE?

Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure — net BTC per basic share after all senior claims (debt + all preferred). BPS ignores what creditors are owed. CEBE is what common shareholders actually own. Amplification = BPS÷CEBE.

YieldMax · MSTY

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Est. Annual Yield

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at current price

Distribution frequency

Weekly

Strategy

Call spreads on MSTR

Last distribution ROC

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Est. weekly dist / share

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ROC warning threshold

>80%

The MSTY Rule

Income is real only when ROC <50%. Above 80% you're consuming principal. Check yieldmaxetfs.com weekly.

Strategy · STRC Preferred

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Eff. Yield

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vs stated

$80$90$100$115

Current price

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Par / liquidation preference

$100.00

Discount / premium to par

—

Dividend rate (monthly adj.)

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Effective yield

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52-week range

$82.53 — $100.42

Why $100 Is The Number

STRC is engineered to trade at par via monthly rate adjustments. Below $90 = market doubting dividend sustainability. Above $100 = ATM open, flywheel running.

📐 Scenario Matrix

Scenario	BTC	PL Signal	Regime Est.	F&G	mNAV	MSTR Target	MSTR Δ	MSTY	STRC	ATM

All figures recalculate live from Finnhub prices + auto-fetched fundamentals.

💵 Strategy Cash Coverage — Liquidity Risk Monitor

USD Reserve

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As of Jun 21 2026 · 8-K confirmed

Dividend Coverage

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months at current obligations

Annual Div Obligation

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Preferred stock across all series

Debt Interest (annual)

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Convertible notes ~0.421% blended

0 months 24 months (target) 36 months

⚠️ <6mo stress 12mo current 24mo target 36mo safe

🟢 If BTC recovers to $80K

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MSTR mNAV reclaims >1x, STRC recovers to par, ATM channels reopen — reserve can be rebuilt via equity/preferred issuance

⚠️ If BTC stays flat ($60K)

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Reserve depletes via dividends. Likely small BTC sales to bridge (32 BTC sold Jun 1 precedent). Survivable but uncomfortable.

🔴 If BTC falls to $40K

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All issuance channels blocked. Reserve depletes faster. Dividends may be deferred (cumulative — they accrue, not forgiven). BTC liquidation possible.

Next debt maturity

Sep 2028 ($1.01B)

Needed for 24-month coverage

~$2.8B

Reserve shortfall vs 24-month target

—

MSTR ATM capacity remaining

~$25.4B

ATM equity usable? (mNAV >1.22x)

—

STRC ATM usable? (price >$100)

—

BTC unrealised P&L

—

STRC dividends if deferred

Cumulative — accrue, not forgiven

How to read this: The USD Reserve is Strategy's ring-fenced cash buffer — not for buying BTC, specifically for preferred dividends and debt interest. Coverage = Reserve ÷ Annual Obligations. CryptoQuant flagged coverage fell from 7+ years to ~14 months in 2026. Target coverage is 24 months (~$2.8B). Current reserve is ~$1.4B. Reserve auto-updates daily via Cloudflare Worker from SEC filings.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Prices: Finnhub live + CoinGecko. MAs/RSI: CoinGecko 200-day OHLC. Fear & Greed: alternative.me. Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR + YieldMax via Cloudflare Worker. Power Law: Porkopolis (~$144K fair today). CEBE uses ~$23.7B total senior claims (debt + all preferred series).