📊 BTC Market Regime — Trend State & Turn Signal
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Price vs 200d MA
Bull/bear structural line
Price vs 50d MA
Early warning line
50d vs 200d Cross
Golden/Death Cross status
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RSI (14-day)
Momentum indicator
0Oversold 30NeutralOverbought 70100
| Regime | Price vs 50d | Price vs 200d | 50d vs 200d | What It Means | Action for MSTR/STRC |
|---|
| 🐂 Strong Bull | Above | Above | 50d > 200d | Full uptrend. All MAs rising. | Hold / accumulate on dips |
| ⚠️ Weakening | Below | Above | 50d > 200d | ⚡ EARLY WARNING. Price broke 50d but still above 200d. | Reduce size / watch closely |
| 🐻 Bear Entry | Below | Below | 50d > 200d | Price fell through both MAs. Death Cross likely forming. | Defensive posture |
| 🐻 Deep Bear | Below | Below | Death Cross | Full downtrend. 50d crossed below 200d. | Minimum exposure. Watch 200-WMA. |
| 🔄 Recovering | Above | Below | Death Cross | Price above 50d but 200d still overhead. Recovery underway. | Begin re-accumulating carefully |
50d MA and 200d MA values sourced from CoinGecko daily OHLC data (last 200 days). RSI calculated from 14-day close prices. ⚡ The "Weakening" state is the key early warning — price drops below the 50d MA typically 2–8 weeks before a Death Cross forms.
▲ BUY — Best Opportunities (ranked, $1,000 nominal)
▼ REDUCE / AVOID — Ranked by Risk
😱 Fear & Greed Index — Alternative.me · Daily
30-Day Sentiment History
₿ Power Law — Porkopolis / Santostasi (1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77)
⏳Calculating…
FloorFair ValueResist.
Floor (0.42×)
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Breached only once (COVID 2020)
Fair Value
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Long-run gravitational centre
Resistance (3×)
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Cycle tops form near here
Fair value ≈
— today. Sites showing ~$374K use a steeper exponent — this uses Porkopolis regression (~$144K).
alt.me F&G API.
Strategy · MSTR
mNAV
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Mkt Cap ÷ BTC NAV (assumed diluted)
DiscountFair 1–2xElevatedPeak 4x
BTC NAV / share
BTC value per diluted share
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Premium / discount to NAV
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Sats per share (BPS)
BTC holdings ÷ assumed diluted shares × 10⁸
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YieldMax · MSTY
Est. Annual Yield
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at current price
Distribution frequency
Weekly
Strategy
Call spreads on MSTR
Est. weekly dist / share
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ROC warning threshold
>80%
The MSTY Rule
Real income only when ROC <50%. Above 80% you're consuming principal. Check yieldmaxetfs.com weekly.
Strategy · STRC Preferred
Eff. Yield
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vs stated rate
🔴ATM FROZEN. Below par, Strategy can't raise capital via STRC. Blocks BTC purchases. $100 recovery unlocks the flywheel.
Par / liquidation preference
$100.00
Discount / premium to par
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Dividend rate (monthly adj.)
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52-week range
$82.53 — $100.42
Why $100 Is The Number
STRC is engineered to trade at par via monthly rate adjustments. Below $90 = market doubting dividend sustainability. Above $100 = ATM open, flywheel running.
📐 Scenario Matrix
| Scenario | BTC | vs PL Fair | Est. Regime | F&G Zone | mNAV | MSTR Target | MSTR Δ | MSTY | STRC | ATM |
|---|
All calculations live from Finnhub prices + auto-fetched fundamentals. Moving averages from CoinGecko OHLC history.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Prices: Finnhub live + CoinGecko. MAs & RSI: computed from CoinGecko 200-day OHLC. Fear & Greed: alternative.me (daily). Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR + YieldMax via Cloudflare Worker. Power Law: Porkopolis coefficients (~$144K fair today). Regime signals are algorithmic, not personalised advice.