Strategy Tracker

₿Strategy Tracker

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Filed—

BTC—8-K

Shares—8-K

BTC Yield—8-K

ROC—YM

CEBE—calc

Cash Reserve—8-K

Div Coverage—calc

BTC

—

MSTR

—

MSTY

—

STRC

—

F&G

—

Regime

—

⚡ Buy Window Score — When To Buy

—

/100

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Calculating signals…

📋 Ideal Buy Conditions — What To Watch For

⬜

Power Law: BTC within 20% of floor (—). Currently — above floor.

⬜

Fear & Greed: Below 25 (Extreme Fear). Currently —/100.

⬜

mNAV: Below 1.5x (fair value or below). Currently —x.

⬜

CEBE mNAV: Between 1.0–1.2x (flywheel on, not overstretched). Currently —. The key signal — above 1x = capital tap open.

⬜

Regime: Not in Deep Bear / Death Cross active. Currently —. This is the caution signal right now.

Reading the signals: CEBE mNAV >1x = flywheel intact = most important green flag. All 5 valuation signals green with ⬜ regime = accumulate in tranches. All 6 green = highest conviction entry. Regime turns green when BTC reclaims the 50d MA (—). Standard mNAV alone is misleading — always check CEBE mNAV first.

▲ BUY — Ranked ($1,000 nominal)

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▼ REDUCE / AVOID — Ranked

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😱 Fear & Greed Index

—

30-Day History

MSTR

—

MSTY

—

STRC

—

₿ Power Law Valuation

⏳Calculating…

BTC Price

—

Live

PL Fair Value

—

1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77

Deviation

—

FloorFair ValueResistance

Floor (0.42×)

—

Only breached once (COVID 2020)

Fair Value

—

Long-run gravitational centre

Resistance (3×)

—

Cycle tops form near here

Formula: 1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77 · Fair value today ≈ —. Sites showing ~$374K use a steeper exponent — this uses Porkopolis regression.

📊 Market Regime — Trend State & Turn Signal

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—

Turn Signal

—

Price vs 200d MA

—

——

Price vs 50d MA ⚡ Early Warning

—

——

Golden / Death Cross

—

RSI (14-day)

—

0305070100

Strategy · MSTR

—

mNAV

—

Mkt Cap÷BTC NAV

DiscountFairElevated4x

BTC NAV / share

—

Premium / discount to NAV

—

Fair value @ 1.5x mNAV

—

Fair value @ 2.0x mNAV

—

BTC holdings

—

BPS (sats / diluted share)

BTC holdings ÷ assumed diluted × 10⁸

—

CEBE (sats / basic share)

Net BTC after senior claims ÷ basic shares

—

CEBE (USD / share)

What common shareholders actually own in BTC

—

Amplification

BPS ÷ CEBE — leverage from senior claims

—

BTC Yield YTD

—

What Is CEBE?

Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure — net BTC per basic share after all senior claims (debt + all preferred). BPS ignores what creditors are owed. CEBE is what common shareholders actually own. Amplification = BPS÷CEBE.

YieldMax · MSTY

—

Est. Annual Yield

—

at current price

Distribution frequency

Weekly

Strategy

Call spreads on MSTR

Last distribution ROC

—

Est. weekly dist / share

—

ROC warning threshold

>80%

The MSTY Rule

Income is real only when ROC <50%. Above 80% you're consuming principal. Check yieldmaxetfs.com weekly.

Strategy · STRC Preferred

—

Eff. Yield

—

vs stated

$80$90$100$115

Current price

—

Par / liquidation preference

$100.00

Discount / premium to par

—

Dividend rate (monthly adj.)

—

Effective yield

—

52-week range

$82.53 — $100.42

Why $100 Is The Number

STRC is engineered to trade at par via monthly rate adjustments. Below $90 = market doubting dividend sustainability. Above $100 = ATM open, flywheel running.

📐 Scenario Matrix

Scenario	BTC	PL Signal	Regime Est.	F&G	mNAV	MSTR Target	MSTR Δ	MSTY	STRC	ATM

All figures recalculate live from Finnhub prices + auto-fetched fundamentals.

💵 Strategy Cash Coverage — Liquidity Risk Monitor

USD Reserve

—

As of Jun 21 2026 · 8-K confirmed

Dividend Coverage

—

months at current obligations

Annual Div Obligation

—

Preferred stock across all series

Debt Interest (annual)

—

Convertible notes ~0.421% blended

0mo 24mo target 36mo

⚠️ <6mo stress 12mo current 24mo target 36mo safe

🟢 If BTC recovers to $80K

—

MSTR mNAV reclaims >1x, STRC recovers to par, ATM channels reopen — reserve can be rebuilt via equity/preferred issuance

⚠️ If BTC stays flat ($60K)

—

Reserve depletes via dividends. Likely small BTC sales to bridge (32 BTC sold Jun 1 precedent). Survivable but uncomfortable.

🔴 If BTC falls to $40K

—

All issuance channels blocked. Reserve depletes faster. Dividends may be deferred (cumulative — they accrue, not forgiven). BTC liquidation possible.

Total combined coverage

Cash + BTC monetization authorization

—

BTC Monetization Program

Board-authorized to build/replenish reserve (Jun 29 2026)

—

Board min. reserve policy

Any reduction below 12mo requires Board auth

12 months

Next debt maturity

Sep 2028 ($1.01B)

Needed for 24-month coverage

~$2.8B

Reserve shortfall vs 24-month target

—

MSTR ATM capacity remaining

~$25.4B

ATM equity usable? (CEBE mNAV >1.0x)

CEBE mNAV is the real accretion threshold — not standard mNAV

—

STRC ATM usable? (price >$100)

—

BTC unrealised P&L

—

STRC dividends if deferred

Cumulative — accrue, not forgiven

How to read this: The USD Reserve is Strategy's ring-fenced cash buffer — not for buying BTC, specifically for preferred dividends and debt interest. Coverage = Reserve ÷ Annual Obligations. CryptoQuant flagged coverage fell from 7+ years to ~14 months in 2026. Target coverage is 24 months (~$2.8B). Current reserve is ~$1.4B. Reserve auto-updates daily via Cloudflare Worker from SEC filings.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Prices: Finnhub live + CoinGecko. MAs/RSI: CoinGecko 200-day OHLC. Fear & Greed: alternative.me. Fundamentals: SEC EDGAR + YieldMax via Cloudflare Worker. Power Law: Porkopolis (~$144K fair today). CEBE uses ~$23.7B total senior claims (debt + all preferred series).

🔄 Full Cycle Playbook — Both Directions

🎯 Exit Bull / Build Bear Hedge — Conditions

⬜

mNAV above 2.0x — MSTR expensive vs BTC. Currently —x

⬜

Power Law above fair value — BTC extended. Currently —

⬜

Fear & Greed above 70 (Greed/Extreme Greed). Currently —/100

⬜

Buy Window Score below 36 — valuation stretched. Currently —

⬜

Regime weakening or Death Cross — trend breaking. Currently —

—

🐂 Exit Bear Hedge / Re-enter Bull — Conditions

⬜

Buy Window Score rising above 52 from below. Currently — and —

⬜

BTC near Power Law floor — long-term value zone. Currently —

⬜

Fear & Greed below 30 (Extreme Fear). Currently —/100

⬜

Regime recovering or Golden Cross forming. Currently —

⬜

CEBE mNAV approaching 1.0x — flywheel about to turn on. Currently —x

—

When 3+/5 fire → start trimming WNTR and re-entering MSTR. Resume MSTY accumulation.

⛓️ WNTR Exit Signal — When to Close the Bear Hedge

—

💜 STRC Rotation Signal — Safe Harbour Status

—

MSTY dist: — ROC: —

WNTR dist: — ROC: —

📋 My Positions — Enter Share Counts

MSTR Shares

—

MSTY Shares

—

STRC Shares

—

WNTR Shares

—

WNTR Price ($)

Enter manually — not on Finnhub

Avg WNTR Cost ($)

Your average buy price

Total MSTY Income ($)

Cumulative distributions received

Total → WNTR ($)

Total MSTY income deployed to WNTR

Total → STRC ($)

Total MSTY income / capital rotated to STRC

↳ Override Latest Distributions (if auto-fetch fails or wrong)

MSTY dist/share ($)

Auto: $0.2222

WNTR dist/share ($)

Auto: $0.45

💰 Live Portfolio Value

Total Portfolio

—

MSTR Value

—

MSTY Value

—

Weekly income: —

STRC Value

—

Annual income: —

WNTR Value

—

P&L vs cost: —

Weekly Income (all)

—

MSTY + STRC (semi-mo)

Annual Income (all)

—

MSTY + WNTR (×52) + STRC

BTC Exposure

—

via MSTR

📐 This Week's MSTY Distribution — Where Does It Go?

Your MSTY shares —

Latest distribution / share

Total this distribution —

Current Buy Window Score —

→ WNTR % —

→ Amount to WNTR —

→ STRC % —

→ Amount to STRC —

→ Cash / Debt % —

→ Amount to cash/debt —

Logic: Three-way split driven by regime + mNAV. Bull: WNTR cheap → accumulate. Transition: STRC for income + par upside. Bear: STRC primary income, harvest WNTR. STRC below par = 14.12% yield + 17.65% gain to par — the safe harbour between cycles.

📒 MSTY → WNTR Ledger

Total MSTY income received —

Total deployed to WNTR —

% of income deployed to WNTR —

WNTR position current value —

WNTR P&L vs cost —

Total rotated to STRC —

STRC position value —

STRC P&L vs cost (+ par upside) —

Income retained (cash/debt) —

🔮 Scenario Modeler — What If MSTR = $X?

Target MSTR price:

—

Your MSTR value

—

MSTY est. price

—

Your MSTY value

—

WNTR est. price

—

Your WNTR value

—

STRC value

—

Price unlikely to change much

Total portfolio

—

Weekly MSTY income

—

at projected MSTY price