▲ BUY — Best Opportunities (ranked, $1,000 nominal)
▼ REDUCE / AVOID — Overvalued or High Risk (ranked)
₿ Bitcoin Power Law Valuation (Santostasi / Porkopolis Model)
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Calculating…
Current BTC Price
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Live via CoinGecko
Power Law Fair Value
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P = 1.6×10⁻¹⁷ × days^5.77
Deviation from Fair Value
—
—
Floor
Fair Value
Resistance
Floor (0.42× fair)
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Historical buy zone — only breached once (COVID Mar 2020)
Fair Value (model centre)
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Gravitational centre — price orbits around this long-term
Resistance (3× fair)
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Bull market peak zone — where cycle tops have historically formed
Strategy · MSTR
DiscountFair 1–2xElevatedPeak 4x
BTC NAV / share
Pure BTC backing per diluted share
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Sats per share
220,900 sats
YieldMax · MSTY
Est. Annual Yield
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at current price
Distribution frequency
Weekly
Strategy
Covered call spreads
Last dist ROC (Jun 18)
⚠️ Your capital returned, not profit
96.87%
Est. weekly dist / share
~$0.22
ROC danger threshold
>80% ROC
The MSTY Rule
Income is "real" only when distributions are <50% return-of-capital. Above that you're consuming principal as income.
Strategy · STRC Preferred
Eff. Yield
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vs 11.5% at par
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ATM issuance FROZEN. Strategy can't raise capital via STRC below par — blocking BTC purchases. Recovery above $100 unlocks the flywheel.
Par / liquidation preference
$100.00
Discount / premium to par
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Dividend rate
Adjusts monthly — rises if below par
11.50% p.a.
52-week range
$82.53 — $100.42
Why $100 Is The Number
STRC is engineered to trade at par via monthly rate adjustments. Below $90 = market doubting Strategy's ability to pay. Above $100 = ATM open, flywheel running.
📐 Scenario Matrix
| Scenario | BTC | PL Signal | mNAV | MSTR Target | MSTR Δ | MSTY Signal | STRC vs Par | ATM |
|---|
All figures auto-calculated from live prices on each refresh. MSTR target = BTC NAV/share × scenario mNAV.
⚠️ Not financial advice. Recommendations generated algorithmically from live prices, Power Law model, and valuation ratios. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.